College Football Best Bets of Week 6
By Preston Hiefield
It was an electric 6-1-1 week for my picks in Week 5!
Only Georgia, which was run all over (surrendered 219 rush yds) by a pathetic Auburn offense, let me down to not cover the spread of 14.5. The Dawgs nearly lost outright, trailing 10-0 early and 20-10 at one point on The Plains. If Brock Bowers didn’t exist they would’ve lost this game, but the young man is just different! We’ll see what happens with the UGA offense when Ladd McConkey is fully healthy.
So that nearly perfect week brings the season total to 23-16-1. Now that’s what I’m talking about! I’m either about to get WHITE HOT or there will be regression, so take these picks with caution. Gotta stay grounded here…
The picks for this week…
LOCK: Texas -5.5 vs Oklahoma.
My favorite regular season game of the year in the sport, the Red River Rivalry. The old Cotton Bowl setting, the burnt orange vs. the crimson and cream colorways, the Texas State Fair serving as the backdrop. Man, it just means more down there….Last year this wasn’t much of a game: Texas 49, OU 0. Sooners were without QB Dillon Gabriel (concussion), though, and they’ll have him this year. I’m not sure why people keep doubting the 2023 Texas team and I certainly won’t be among them. I’ve seen everything I need to see: elite playcaller, QB, RB, WR group and line of scrimmage play. Bonafide win at Bama. On the Oklahoma side, after a disastrous debut season, Brent Venables appears to have righted the ship. Gabriel is off to a stat-stuffing start, but he hasn’t faced a defense nearly this good. How about this stat: the Horns defense has surrendered just six touchdowns all season. I expect that D-Line to disrupt the OU passing attack and harass Gabriel.
Prediction: Texas 40, Oklahoma 20
Michigan -18.5 at Minnesota
The battle for the Little Brown Jug! This game is as old as college football itself, having been played since 1909. How about this stat from ESPN: Minnesota hasn’t beaten Michigan at home since 1977. 1977?! Bill Walton was partying down Broadway Street in Rip City! Michigan’s defense is just so nasty, and Minnesota is severely struggling at QB right now. The Wolverines are a legitimate national title contender with zero weaknesses, it’s really just a matter of if they will “get up” for this game or not. Minnesota’s newly renovated stadium from a few years back looks electric, so the home crowd could keep it noisy and close early. But Michigan settles in and notches their 18th straight Big Ten win.
Prediction: Michigan 37, Minnesota 13
Notre Dame -6.5 at Louisville
Watching the last three minutes of the Duke game back again, it’s amazing Notre Dame won in Durham (and covered the spread with that 2PT conversion!). Absolutely amazing. First, Duke decides to punt on 4th & 6 at the ND 33. Next, Sam Hartman is nearly sacked for a safety. Later, Hartman throws a bad ball that hits a Duke DB right in the chest but he can’t squeeze it for the game-winning INT. Then, Hartman scrambles for a 4th & 16 conversion…and finally, Notre Dame told Estime to go down but he just ran into the end zone for a score. College football! All this to say, Notre Dame was very fortunate to win. Duke is legit, especially on defense, so give them their flowers. My read here is there are a few fraudulent 4-1/5-0 teams at this time of year every year in college football, and I put Louisville in that spot in ‘23. Hartman and the Irish get back on track.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Louisville 20.
Wyoming +6 vs. Fresno State
A huge tilt in the Mountain West is getting the FOX national treatment: 5 PM PT on FOX. Tim Brando on the call. You love to see it! This spread seems so obvious it scares me, though. Wyoming has a high-quality defense. They’re at home. The Cowboys already beat Texas Tech in Laramie and hung with Texas in Austin for three and a half quarters. Why the heck are they getting a touchdown at home? I’ve done my research and don’t see any injuries, Vegas just respects Tedford that much. I even checked in with Fresno State season ticketholder and college friend Blake Billinger on this one…he’s nervous. He feels Fresno State is good but this will be their biggest test yet. The Bulldogs do bring in a 14-game winning streak (2nd longest in the nation). Jake Haener’s replacement at QB, Mikey Keene, has 14 touchdown passes so far this year and seems to be humming along in that Bulldogs offense. But their schedule has just not tested them at all (Eastern Washington took them to OT), while Wyoming’s schedule has them ready for war at War Memorial Stadium. I don’t love the Cowboys offense but everything else is screaming home team. Give me WYO ML in the upset.
Prediction: Wyoming 23, Fresno State 19
OKST +12 vs. Kansas State
A little nervous about this one, because Oklahoma State’s offensive identity seems to have been rocked by soiled QB play. We’ve got a three-man rotation featuring Gundy’s son in the mix. Can someone please explain to me why accomplished OKST QB Spencer Sanders transferred to Ole Miss in the offseason only to warm the bench in his final year of eligibility? He couldn’t have been paid THAT much by Kiffin & company…right?...right?! Kansas State under HC Chris Klieman meanwhile just keeps rolling with that smashmouth pro-style identity that they ran for 86 years under Bill Snyder. Will Howard is still there at QB. The read here is my rule about home underdogs on weeknights. Dig deep, Stillwater!
Prediction: Kansas State 27, OK State 23.
Colorado -3.5 at ASU
Well after all that rah rah from Coach Prime and the 3-0 start, this sure feels like a game Colorado has to have. The losses to Oregon and USC were expected, but ASU and Stanford are duking it out for worst team in the PAC-12 this year. The Sun Devils were left for dead by former HC Herm Edwards, who racked up recruiting violations and then left the talent cupboard bare for new HC Kenny Dillingham. C’mon, Herm! Totally unprofessional! No Travis Hunter for a few more weeks according to Prime, but the Buffs showed real fight against USC in the second half last week. Shedeur is a beast.
Prediction: Colorado 36, ASU 28
Iowa -1.5 vs. Purdue
We faded the Hawkeyes two weeks ago for an easy win, as Penn State beat them up 31-0 in State College. Michigan transfer QB Cade McNamara is out for the season (ACL), so Iowa will trot out new QB Deacon Hill in this one. This is EXACTLY the type of game the Hawkeyes live for: at home against a stiff Big Ten West opponent when no one is watching. Bread and butter, rinse and repeat. Notably, this will be the first conference road game for new Purdue HC Ryan Walters. The former Illinois DC was brought in to coach defense but will need time to turn that unit around, as the Boilermakers have actually been torched much of this year and currently have the second worst defense in the Big Ten statistically speaking. That has to be a nice feeling for Iowa’s new QB, which is why I’m taking the Hawkeyes at home.
Prediction: Iowa 23, Purdue 18
Enjoy your CFB Saturday!