Coffee and College Football: Picks for New Year's Day Bowl Games, Jan. 1, 2024
Keith Jackson voice: "Welcome to...the Rose Bowl..."
Happy New Year!
May all your resolutions come true in 2024. Chase your dreams!
Hope you’re not nursing a hangover this morning, but if you are, grab some java and check out my predictions for the biggest college football day of the year…
ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs. #13 LSU (-9)
Heisman winner Jayden Daniels is sitting this one out for the Tigers, as he joins the long list of players sitting out non-playoff bowl games in preparation for the NFL Draft. I have a whole rant on that topic for a later date/podcast (simple proposed fixes to the currently broken system that victimized FSU in the Peach Bowl). Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier, whose dad Doug previously coached at LSU and all around college football for that matter, gets the starting nod at QB for Brian Kelly in this game. Meanwhile Wisconsin will be without their top offensive player, stud RB Braelon Allen, whose decorated Badgers career is over as he prepares for the NFL Draft. Been a weird year for both these programs, who normally compete for their respective conference titles but were not even close to winning them this year. I think Wisconsin has improved but I still can’t shake the sight of them getting packed up by Washington State earlier this year.
Prediction: LSU 31, Wisconsin 17
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: #8 Oregon (-17.5) vs. #23 Liberty
Bo Nix and Brandon Dorlus (hello NIL deal$$$) are among the star Ducks who will in fact play in the Fiesta Bowl against Liberty. WR Troy Franklin and C Jackson Powers-Johnson are sitting out ahead of the Draft to my knowledge, but the Ducks should still have plenty of star power on both sides in this game. Nix has a chance to break the all-time single season record for completion percentage, currently boasting a 77.2% just behind Mac Jones’ 77.4%. Liberty QB Kaidon Salter is a super fast dual-threat who ran for 1,064 yards and 12 TDs this year. The only question here is Oregon’s level of motivation, given the exceedingly “playoff or bust” mentality that has permeated through the elite programs in college football. Oregon was six points away from an undefeated season and playing for a national title. Will they get up for Liberty from the Group of 5? All due respect to the Flames program, but it would be a more fascinating matchup if the Ducks were playing a power five squad such as Ole Miss or Penn State.
Well, maybe if Hugh was still on the headset in Lynchburg…
…some classic content right there.
Still, a Fiesta Bowl win and 12-win season is something that 99% of college football programs would be dream of, and I think Oregon coaches and players know that. The Fiesta Bowl is absolutely a huge accomplishment, as it was when the Ducks spanked K-State in ‘12. Finishing 12-2 with a Fiesta Bowl win would be an “A” Year 2 for Dan Lanning.
Prediction: Oregon 40, Liberty 20
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: #17 Iowa vs. #21 Tennessee (-5.5)
Another year, another “Iowa vs. underachieving SEC team” Citrus Bowl. TBH this actually feels like an incoming W for Iowa. They will take this game very seriously. Vols QB Joe Milton is sitting this one out ahead of the NFL Draft, paving the way for $8M QB recruit (allegedly) Nico Iamaleava to start. A true freshman QB in a pass-happy offense playing against the quality Hawkeyes’ D? Smells like a pick-six to me.
Prediction: Iowa 16, Tennessee 13
Rose Bowl: #1 Michigan (-2) vs. #4 Alabama
Keith Jackson, Brent Musberger…a sunny Southern California New Year’s Day…the San Gabriel Mountains basking in the sunshine in the backdrop. The history. The tradition. The purity. The flyover. All the feels whenever this game kicks off.
Seven time national champion Nick Saban against the larger-than-life NCAA disruptor Jim Harbaugh. The two winningest programs in the history of the sport facing off at arguably the grandest stage in sports. I mean, what more could you even ask for here?
Saban is 6-1 in CFP Semifinal games, while Harbaugh is 0-2.
With the report earlier this week by Adam Schefter that Harbaugh has hired an NFL agent, it feels like a near certainty that he’ll head to the league after this year.
To me this game comes down to how well Michigan holds up in the trenches. They were bullied off the field by Georgia two years ago in the CFP. Will that happen again against another sturdy SEC front? The Wolverines need to find a way to be more explosive on offense, but this is a Bama “D” that can be run on. The Tide surrendered over 200 rushing yards to a previously lifeless Auburn offense just a few weeks ago in the Iron Bowl. Turner, Braswell, Kool-Aid and Downs are all first rounders, but this doesn’t feel like the ‘09 or ‘11 historically great Tide defense. Not doubting them at all, just saying you can move the ball. J.J. McCarthy will be looking to avenge last year’s performance against TCU where he threw two pick-six’s…and they’ll need him to be big time. For some reason Michigan turtled on offense down the stretch, getting ultra conservative and hanging on to win. That 50 run to 7 pass ratio strategy won’t work against the Tide. Time to open up the playbook.
Still can’t quite figure out why Michigan is favored, which scares me, but…
Prediction: Alabama 35, Michigan 17
AllState Sugar Bowl: #3 Texas (-4.5) vs. #2 Washington
Washington may be the most disrespected undefeated Power 5 team I’ve ever seen (sorry FSU). They have a generational talent at QB, four great WRs, a fantastic head coach, are on a 20 game winning streak…and yet they’re by far the longest shot to win the national title at +750 and no one seems to be taking them seriously. Everyone - myself included - thought Oregon would get revenge on the Huskies in Vegas. It was very fair analysis, because the Ducks killed teams after losing to UW and UW was barely beating those same teams (surviving late against ASU, Oregon State, etc.). Oregon failed to pressure Michael Penix Jr. much in Las Vegas, though, and that’s the real key to beating Washington. I imagine Texas’ pair of elite Defensive Tackles in T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy will be able to have more success than the Ducks’ front, but will it be enough? I’m thinking a high scoring shootout goes down between two pass-happy teams in this dome setting.
Prediction: Texas 44, Washington 37
Enjoy your CFB NYD!